“EVERY MAN A MILLIONAIRE…”

11/17/09

In my last post, I berated and debunked the hysteria masquerading as argumentation against transferring Guantanamo inmates to a largely unused prison in Thomson, a small town located in a remote stretch of northwest Illinois. Never one to pick favorites when the opportunity arises to bash political types on both sides of any issue, it’s only fair that I now attack the lunacy masquerading as analysis supporting the transfer of the aforementioned bad guys to Thomson.

Perhaps in an order to mollify such well reasoned arguments as Congressman (and recent Sarah Palin acolyte) Mark Kirk’s

“If (the Obama) administration brings al-Qaida terrorists to Illinois, our state and the Chicago metropolitan area will become ground zero for jihadist terrorist plots, recruitment, and radicalization.”,

recent convert to jingoistic know-nothingness Congressman Don Manzullo’s

“The issue is ‘Are you going to exchange the promise of jobs for national security?’ National security trumps everything.”,

Mr. Manzullo’s

“al-Qaida would follow al-Qaida”,

or perennial hanger-on and current gubernatorial candidate Dock Walls’

“We must assume that terrorist groups would constantly plot to free their cohorts. That this small town is in fairly close proximity to a major river should be of safety and strategic concern.”,

proponents of moving the prisoners to Thomson argue that only 100, and perhaps as few as 35, current Guantanamo prisoners may find their way to western Illinois. At the same time, these Thomson proponents, who apparently never saw a fight from which they would not shy away, argue that the move to Thomson would create 400 to 500 new jobs.

Hmm…

Assuming that the stated maximum number of inmates (100) will be transferred and the stated minimum number of new jobs (400) will be created, that’s four prison employees for each new inmate. Assuming the minimum number of inmates transferred (35) and the maximum number of new jobs (500) created, that works out to a little more than 14 employees per prisoner. Now, I am no expert on prison operation (which is one of the many reasons I never ran for sheriff, but that’s another story), but four employees to watch one guy seems a little excessive, even by government standards. 14 employees to watch one guy? Only in Illinois, I guess.

Proponents of Thomson then go on to argue that those (maximum stated) 500 new jobs will result in a total payroll of $85mm. That works out to $170,000 per job. Even by government standards, that seems awfully rich. Perhaps former investment bankers and bond lawyers can make themselves whole by moving to Thomson and becoming prison guards.

Such outlandish numbers are part of the political and civic culture. I remember, when I was active in the Chicago civic community, the argument that Daley’s O’Hare expansion project would create 350,000 new jobs. This outlandish contention, which only yours truly did not accept on face value, was backed by a report of an eminent consulting firm. Why not? If the city is paying one’s consulting firm the types of fees that this “report” generated, such “consultants” will say anything they’re told to say. So the numbers bandied about by Thomson supporters, probably fully supported by a “consultants’ report,” are all part of the game. Those who play this game are counting on people’s not paying attention or inability to do math, not bad things on which to count.

As I indicated in my last post, moving the soon to be Guantanamo alumni to Thomson is a good idea. We have a nearly empty prison situated in an economically depressed area. Supermax prisons can hold bad guys safely; they always have. Given the much ballyhooed worldwide network of Al Qaida, these prisoners’ being located in northwest Illinois does not change the attractiveness of, say, Rock Island, as a target relative to, say, New York or London. And, yes, Al Qaida knows that there is a big city on the southwestern shores of Lake Michigan; having their comrades in prison in Illinois will not enhance their knowledge of geography. You can read my last post for further arguments in favor of Thomson, or, more properly, for further arguments against the arguments against Thomson.

Transferring the Guantanamo terrorists to Thomson has merit; one only wishes that those in favor of the Thomson transfer didn’t trot out the aforementioned ridiculous numbers to support what is a sound argument without such credibility sapping numbers. However, one can’t blame the Thomsonites for using such numbers; the people usually fall for such fantastic statistics. After all, a big time consulting firm would never lie.