“I’LL MAKE (HER) AN OFFER (SHE) CAN’T REFUSE.”

10/18/11

This morning, I heard a New York Times columnist on Bloomberg News (Satellite radio, by the way, might be the best invention since White Castle, but I digress.) expounding on his column in which he broached the possibility of Hillary Clinton’s becoming President Obama’s running mate in 2012. I went to the Times website (I don’t subscribe to the paper; there are only so many hours in the day and we already subscribe to four other papers.) but could not find the columnist’s article. Being in the car when hearing the report and obviously not being able to write anything down (Unlike many other drivers, I drive when I drive, but I again digress.), I didn’t even get the reporter’s name.

Note that in my 10/4/11 post, JERSEY BOY, I concluded with

Should Mr. Romney win the nomination, and should Mr. Obama, as is highly likely but not certain (See my 9/16/11 post “I WILL NOT SEEK, NOR WILL I ACCEPT, THE NOMINATION OF MY PARTY…”), be his party’s nominee, Mr. Romney will face a president with maybe $1 billion, David Axelrod, and perhaps a very interesting and appealing running mate. The latter is grist for a later mill. But, for now, suffice to say this will be no cakewalk for the Republicans.

Apparently, this unnamed reporter for the Times has forced my hand and brought his particular mill, hungry for grist, right to my front doorstep. I do wish I could read his column, rather than rely on the writer’s comments on Bloomberg. If any of you know who the writer is, and perhaps what day this column was published, please let me know so I can read it. The good news is that I am not reacting to the article but rather expounding on a topic I have wanted to visit since well before the aforementioned 10/4/11 post.

While I don’t like to make predictions, at least explicitly so, I would go further than the writer of the aforementioned column, who took pains to point out that he isn’t saying that it is likely that Hillary Clinton will be on the Democratic ticket. I will go as far, but no further, to say that the chances are very good, and getting better with each poll that shows weakening support for President Obama, that Mrs. Clinton will be the Dem’s second fiddle in 2012. The advantages for the Democratic ticket are numerous. As I said in the above quote from my 10/4/11 post, the Democrats go into 2012 with more strength than many, and most on the right, think, but this will still be a very tough election for the incumbent for all the obvious reasons: tough economy, budget catastrophe, tough economy, continuing wars of which Americans have grown very tired, tough economy, a disappointed base, tough economy, growing unpopularity among those in the middle, tough economy, etc., etc., etc. Mrs. Clinton’s presence on the ticket can’t help but be a tremendous shot in the arm for a number of reasons:

--Recent polls have shown Secretary of State Clinton to be among the most admired of currently practicing politician.

--Mrs. Clinton has done an admirable job as Secretary of State, at least from a conventional, centrist perspective, given the tough assignment running Foggy Bottom has been of late.

--She was immensely popular among her Senatorial constituents in New York and, given her performance in the Senate, understandably so.

--Many Democrats doubtless wish they had supported her, rather than the inexperienced young community organizer who purported to be from Chicago, in the race for the Democratic nomination in 2008.

--Even those of us who were among her most vociferous critics have come to, if not admire Mrs. Clinton, at least grudgingly give her credit for doing a good job in her public offices and being a very skilled politician.

--There is, understandably, a great deal of well warranted nostalgia for the Clinton era, with which she can’t help but be associated. The peace and prosperity that characterized that era stand in stark contrast to the dystopia that has characterized the Bush/Obama era, and the stature of Bill Clinton grows each day, especially when contrasted with the, to put it charitably, two clownish poseurs and insufferable lightweights who followed him in the Oval Office.

--As hard as it is for someone on my end of the political spectrum (I know, I know…Which end is that? I’m not even sure myself, but I know it isn’t Hillary’s end.), Hillary Clinton would make an outstanding president should she find herself in that office. One of a president’s, and/or presidential candidate’s, first obligations is to pick a running mate who would be a good president. Further, failure to do so can be disastrous for a candidacy for either an incumbent or non-incumbent. Ask John McCain or George H.W. Bush.

--The gender factor, as much as some overly sensitive types would like to argue otherwise, would a huge consideration. Mrs. Clinton’s presence on the ticket would energize plenty of women voters, and many men voters who want to be perceived, for whatever reason, as doing their part for the advancement of women. In a close election, this could certainly make the difference.

The better question is one my sister-in-law asked the other night when I was making the Hillary for veep argument: What is in it for Hillary? This is, as are all better questions, tougher to answer, but I see a few things that would make Hillary want to run with Mr. Obama:

--This is her last chance to get close to the big prize that she has yearned for, and fruitlessly sought, since her husband left office. Being on the upcoming ticket immediately sets her up, win or lose in 2012, as the front runner for 2016, a year in which she will be 69 years old, the same age as Ronald Reagan in 1980 (Can you believe it? Tempus fugit!), and thus facing her last chance at the brass ring.

--The job of Secretary of State has become increasingly thankless and will become more so as President Obama, should he be reelected, continues to follow his predecessor (and, at least in foreign affairs, some might legitimately believe, his mentor or idol) in further bollixing up America’s role in the world. No one who is Secretary of State will go into 2016 looking strong or smart.

--Hillary is a very smart and capable woman and is closely advised by the smartest and most capable politician of the modern era. The Clintons will doubtless cut some kind of very attractive deal, both over and under the table, as part of Hillary’s agreeing to go on the ticket. If she runs and if the Democrats win, she will be the most involved and powerful vice-president in history. Similarly, should she want the job (See below.), the Clintons have already made it politically impossible for Mr. Obama to replace Joe Biden with anyone but Hillary Clinton.

--The President will doubtless appeal to Mrs. Clinton’s patriotism and party loyalty in making his pitch. One doubts that Secretary Clinton will fail to respond favorably to those appeals; she loves her country and her party.

What about Joe Biden? He will be just short of seventy on Election Day, 2012, not too old to be Vice-President or President, but close. He will certainly be old enough to leave the office with dignity and with nothing like the appearance of being dumped. Further, while he has done a more than passable job as VP and is quite popular, he was considered in 2008 in many quarters to be a one-termer, a more experienced hand to contrast with the ingénue at the top of the ticket and to provide the public with reassurance that there would be an adult around to guide the youngster through his first term. Mr. Biden’s leaving will be no problem for him, for the Party, or for the country, or for even those who like and admire Mr. Biden. There is talk of a job swap, in which Hillary goes on the ticket and Joe goes to Foggy Bottom. That could happen, and might be very logical given Mr. Biden’s foreign policy expertise, but such a swap would not be necessary to get Mr. Biden to step aside.

Yes, I know Hillary Clinton says she wants out of politics after the 2012 election, that she will not serve as Secretary of State in a second Obama term and that she does not want to be on the ticket, though she has left a little wiggle room on the latter. But a politician will say anything, and Mrs. Clinton is nothing if not a politician, and a very good and conventional one at that. The woman’s life has been defined by a burning, unceasing, and, at least regarding the top job, unrequited desire for power. She can say all she wants about teaching and writing, but they will never satisfy her. She wants to be President, and being vice-president is a great way to become president, especially for someone with the political skills of Hillary Rodham Clinton.