“DON’T MAKE NO WAVES, DON’T BACK NO LOSERS.”

12/16/09

Mayor Richard M. Daley, Cook County Board Finance Committee Chairman and 11th Ward Committeeman John Daley, and House Speaker, 13th Ward Committeeman, and state Democratic Party Chairman Mike Madigan are not, unless things change quickly, going to endorse Cook County Board President Todd Stroger for reelection. Why?
The Mayor has some substantive and stylistic differences with Mr. Stroger (See my other 12/16/09 post “((HEY TODD), WHO’S NAME IS ON THAT WATER TOWER OVER THERE?”) that provide plenty of reasons for the Mayor’s and his brother’s non-endorsement. Further, the Daleys and Mr. Madigan perceive, probably (but not definitely…perhaps this is grist for yet another post) correctly, that Todd Stroger cannot win in the primary and are simply following the admonition of the late legendary west side ward boss Bernie Neistein, “Don’t make no waves, don’t back no losers.” The Daleys and Mike Madigan don’t want to back a loser, so they won’t back Stroger, and they can’t afford to make waves, so they won’t publicly endorse any of his three opponents.

Why won’t the Mayor (or, more properly, his brother John, committeeman of the 11th ward and the guy whose endorsement is effectively the same as the “nonpolitical” Mayor’s) endorse any of Mr. Stroger’s opponents? Because there is absolutely no percentage in it. Say that the Mayor would really like Alderman Toni Preckwinkle to become the next President of the County Board. (I have no information that this is the case, but I strongly suspect that it is because Ms. Preckwinkle’s ascension to that job makes so much sense politically and the Mayor is quite adept at politics.) How does it help her to have the Mayor’s public endorsement? Given the racially charged nature of this city’s and this county’s politics, supporters of two of her opponents, Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown and Mr. Stroger, both of whom have worked very closely with the Daleys and would very much like the Daley endorsement but neither of which is known for a surfeit of shame, could use this very endorsement against Ms. Preckwinkle, branding her a “tool of the Daleys” and, by implication, an Uncle Tom. Why take this chance? Even, or perhaps especially, without a public endorsement, the Daleys and their allies in at least some of what are still referred to generically as the “organization wards” could still get the troops out there working for Preckwinkle; precinct captains don’t get their marching orders from the media. The smart move on Daley’s part is not to endorse.

Mike Madigan’s failure to endorse arises from a different set of dynamics. There is little doubt that his 13th Ward constituents support, probably overwhelmingly, the candidacy of Metropolitan Water Reclamation District president Terry O’Brien, the only White candidate in this field of four. If Mr. Madigan had nothing but his constituency to worry about, he would join Matthew O’Shea, committeeman of the 19th Ward, which features demographics, and voting patterns, very similar to those of the 13th Ward, in endorsing Mr. O’Brien. But while Mr. O’Shea is a relative political novice, Mr. Madigan is one of the two most powerful Democrats in the state and his responsibilities as House Speaker and State Party Chairman extend beyond the boundaries of the 13th Ward. He needs the support of Black Democrats in both the latter posts. Endorsing Terry O’Brien would be harmful (though, given the sheer skill and toughness of Mr. Madigan, not fatal) to Mr. Madigan’s statewide endeavors. So he can’t endorse O’Brien. But he can’t endorse any of the other candidates for fear of angering his constituents (though such an endorsement would be similarly non-fatal to Mr. Madigan’s very secure position in the 13th). One can anticipate that, as in the Daley’s 11th ward, there will be no candidate for County Board President on Mr. Madigan’s palm cards. However, while one suspects that, while Alderman Preckwinkle will do surprisingly well in the 11th, Terry O’Brien will win the 13th overwhelmingly.

All of this assumes that all four candidates will stay in the race, which I suspect is a highly unlikely outcome. The dynamics change markedly when people start dropping out, so we will watch this race very closely.