MICHELE AND SARAH, MAKE ROOM FOR THE FAT LADY

7/19/11

The race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination may well be over even before it has started in earnest. There are a number of reasons to suppose that Mitt Romney will win this nomination in a walk. First, Mr. Romney is way ahead in the polls; it was big news yesterday when a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll showed that Michele Bachman, Mr. Romney’s closest challenger, has barely more than half the support (16%) Mr. Romney has (30%). Second, and more important, Romney is way, way ahead in the money race, and money tends to, but does not always, win nominations and elections. Third, the one declared candidate with a realistic chance of getting the support from conservatives and the money to challenge Mr. Romney, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, has crashed and burned. Fourth, and most important, the Republicans have, at least as far back as Nixon in 1968, picked their candidates by primogeniture, i.e., by who is next in line. Mr. Romney, having barely lost the nomination in 2008, is next in line.

Naysayers list two major reasons that Mr. Romney will not get the GOP nod. First, they cite the Massachusetts health care law, implemented under Mr. Romney, which is derided as “Obama-light,” “Obamaromneycare,” or some other such failed attempt at levity. But it is the true believers whose main problem with Mr. Obama is his largely ill-conceived health care legislation. The typical voter, while not enthralled by Obamacare, is more concerned about the direction of the economy and the federal governments’ finances under President Obama than they are about the President’s approach to health care. If they are disgusted by Obamanomics, concern about a legitimate and promising rival’s approach to health care is not going to dissuade them from supporting that challenger. Note also that more “typical voters,” as opposed to true believers, are going to decide the GOP nomination because there will be no reason, at the presidential level, for independents, and for most Democrats, to take a Democratic ballot in the 2012 primaries. Hence, the voters in the Republican primaries will be more similar to the general election electorate than they have been since at least 1996. While substantial numbers of Democrats may vote in their Republican primaries for the person they feel will be the weakest challenger to their certain standard-bearer, one has to think that independents, and even most Democrats, will support the candidate they find most palatable as an alternative to Mr. Obama.

That last point largely answers the other major counter-argument to Mr. Romney’s almost certain nomination, to wit, that his moderate, and somewhat sickeningly flexible, views do not appeal to those who vote in GOP primaries. This should not be as big a problem as most (including, until a few weeks ago, yours truly) think. First, again, there will be plenty of cross-over voting in the GOP contests, and hence the primary electorate will be far more moderate than is typically the case in these primaries. Second, look at the GOP nominees since President Reagan’s retirement:

(I)=incumbent

1988 George H.W. Bush
1992 George H.W. Bush (I)
1996 Bob Dole
2000 George W. Bush
2004 George W. Bush (I)
2008 John McCain

Yes, I know; depressing, isn’t it? But that’s not my point. My point is that, for all the bluff and bluster, largely from the left and the mainstream media, about how the rabid right-wingers choose the Republican nominee, none of the above could be considered a raving conservative, either social or economic, with the (only) possible exception at the time of George W. Bush. All had challengers from the right, but all had plenty of money and party support and, most importantly, all, again with the (only) possible exception of George W. Bush, were next in line. Mr. Romney should repeat this pattern.

It’s early, of course, and anything could happen. Mr. Romney, like any politician, has the potential to shoot himself in the foot, even, perhaps especially, if he plays it safe. If Rick Perry, or, far less likely, Chris Christie, gets in the race, things change, probably markedly. Further, with the elimination in many states of winner take all delegate selection, things have the potential to get even more interesting. But, at least at this stage, it’s hard to see how Mr. Romney does not get the GOP nomination, and he may wrap it up earlier than most people think.