“KEEP COUNTING THE VOTES ‘TIL THEY COME OUT RIGHT!”

2/22/11

It’s Election Day in Chicago, and the first one in over twenty years featuring a race for mayor that means anything. I have assiduously avoided making predictions about this race, perhaps because the first one I made (“LONG LIVE THE KING!”, 9/7/10):

Forget Rahm Emanuel for mayor of Chicago. He’s been away a long time and never was much of a power in this town. I say this even after saying that money wins elections.

looks so bad at the moment. (Now, if that prediction turns out somehow to be right, I will look like a genius, but, like most pundits who look brilliant in hindsight, I will have turned out have been only lucky.) I explained what went wrong with that prediction in my 2/13/11 post, T MINUS 9:

I had no idea that the Daley family would go so thoroughly into the tank for Mr. Emanuel. They provided the organization, some troops on the ground, and even more money from the business interests in this city that put Mr. Emanuel into the position he currently enjoys.

The funny, and not in “ha-ha funny” type of way, is that the Daleys still deny, officially, that they are backing Emanuel. Loyal readers know that my estimate of the sharpness of the typical American voter approximates that of the late, great H.L. Mencken, but even I don’t take the voters for the fools that Rich Daley apparently does. But I digress.

So while I am making no predictions, I get the sense that the momentum is going toward a run-off. Why? None of these reasons is scientific in any way, but they are all I have, besides my gut:

--Even the punditocracy, which has been so sure for weeks, if not months, that its consanguineous champion, the mighty Rahm, would sweep into office today, has been hedging its bets, opining that Gery Chico just might get enough votes to force a run-off. Of course, they sniff at Mr. Chico’s chances against Mr. Terrific in a one-on-one race, but more on that below.

--My wife and I spent quite a bit of time in the 19th Ward today, which the aforementioned punditocracy considers a “Rahm ward,” a sentiment I shared (“LET’S LOOK AT THE RECORD…”, 1/18/11) until learning a few things in recent weeks. We drove through Beverly, West Beverly, Mt. Greenwood, and my old neighborhood that remains nameless but that is sometimes called West Morgan Park (How stilted does that sound?) or Beverly Woods, apparently after a restaurant that has become something of a neighborhood institution and a niagara of photo-ops for pols of all stripes, but mostly those of Irish-Catholic extraction. In each of these neighborhoods, as far as we could see, Chico signs outnumbered Rahm signs, and the disparity was huge in Mt. Greenwood, where cops and the fire fighters comprise an even greater share of the population than they do in other neighborhoods in the ward.

Two things surprised us more, though, than the sign count’s going in Chico’s direction. First, there weren’t that many political signs out in the 19th, that most political of wards. Could it be that those who don’t back Rahm don’t want certain people in the ward to know that they don’t back Rahm? Or do people just not care, either because of apathy (not likely) or a feeling that this race is over (more, but not highly, likely)? Second, we saw no Braun signs, even I my old neighborhood, which has a very large black population.

--From what I have heard so far, turnout is light city wide. Contrary to what the aforementioned punditocracy thinks, this would seem to favor Gery Chico. The cops and the fire fighters are more likely to vote than is the average person, and they favor Mr. Chico. Further, many of the most powerful ward organizations back Gery Chico, and they get their people to the polls no matter what.


This all might mean nothing, and perhaps I am talking my position. My position? Not that I am so enamored of Mr. Chico, but anyone who has read this blog over the last few months knows that I am a “stop-Rahm” guy through and through. Further, even if I supported Mr. Emanuel, I simply don’t want this to end; a continuing race gives me plenty of grist for this blog and helps sell my books, The Chairman and The Chairman’s Challenge.

Of course, if we do get a run-off, everything changes. But more, hopefully, on that later.