"YOU KNOW HOW THE PREMIER LIKES SURPRISES..."

2/1/10

I try not to make political predictions, simply because I’m not very good at it. As just the latest example of my utter inability to predict the outcome of a genuinely contested election, I was floored when Scott Brown won the Kennedy seat in Massachusetts. I think the last year in which I predicted a not eminently predictable election with acute accuracy was 1975, when I predicted, to the ward and within a few percentage points of the overall vote total, Richard J. Daley’s margin of victory in the Democratic primary over Alderman Bill Singer, the reform alderman who went on to make millions from his political connections, and a smattering of others (Dick Newhouse and Ed Hanrahan, if I recall correctly, but it doesn’t matter; Singer was the real challenger, if Daley ever genuinely had one of those after 1955, but I digress) for Chicago Mayor. So I try to avoid embarrassing myself by making political predictions. It is said that predictive ability is indicative of knowledge in any particular area; if that is true, I know nothing about politics. Since the latter clearly is not true, the former is suspect, but I digress.

So while I will make no predictions about tomorrow’s primary, I will point out several things that surprise me going into the election:

--Governor Pat Quinn (no relation) and Comptroller Dan Hynes are neck and neck in the gubernatorial primary. Given how difficult it is to unseat an incumbent of one's own party in the primary, I thought even an incompetent grandstander (Harold Washington was a very smart guy, by the way.) like Pat Quinn would bury any opponent and that young Mr. Hynes would follow his father’s example and drop out of the race, albeit at a more propitious time than his father, who dropped out a few days before the mayoral election in 1987 that pitted him against the aforementioned Mayor Washington.

--Terry O'Brien, the only White candidate for President of the County Board in racially charged Cook County, is, according to polls, running third in the race, far behind frontrunner Alderman Toni Preckwinkle and placer Clerk of the Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown. He is ahead of only disgraced incumbent Todd Stroger. Note that O'Brien is not some kind of fringe candidate; he is president of the Water Reclamation District.

Why is Mr. O'Brien running so poorly? It can't be backlash against political insiders, of which Mr. O'Brien is a very salient example, down to his remarkable physical resemblance to Mayor Richard M. Daley. Such an explanation holds no water in this race; all four candidates are insiders, and see the below bullet point.

There are only two possible explanations for Mr. O'Brien's third place standing. First, perhaps Cook County's racial polarization is a thing of the past, or at least is ebbing. That would be a very good thing, and certainly things have gotten much better on the race relations front over the last several decades. Second, people are lying to pollsters, unwilling to admit they are voting for the White guy, which is construed in "better" circles as somehow intrinsically evil. While I place a very high value on honesty, lying to pollsters, especially to exit pollsters (not the case in this circumstance...yet) is admirable...it makes elections far more interesting.

--The voting public and the media have been yammering on and on about how they want to “change” things, are tired of “business as usual, “don’t want to “play the same old political gangs,” are sick of the “culture of corruption,” and want to free Illinois from the grip of “political insiders.”

So who’s neck and neck in the Democratic primary for governor? Pat Quinn (no relation) who has the endorsement of the Cook County Regular Democratic Organization and who has endorsed the nominal head of the same organization, Joe Berrios, in his race for county assessor against Judge Ray Figueroa, the type of guy who passes for a reformer in Cook County, and Dan Hynes, who is the son of former 19th Ward Committeeman and Cook County Assessor Tom Hynes and who enjoys the fervent backing of both major teachers' unions, who, with the obeisance of their lapdog political lackeys in both parties have played a major role in bankrupting this state.

So who’s about even in the Republican primary for governor? Kirk Dillard, who is a veteran state senator and former chief of staff of (Saints Preserve Us!) Big Jim Thompson and Jim Edgar, Jim Ryan, who is a former Attorney General, failed candidate for whatever office was available at the time, and a political retread who was a close associate and financial beneficiary of convicted felon (on various corruption related charges) Stuart Levine, and Andy McKenna, who was head of the Illinois Republican Party from 2005 to 2009 (aka “the Alan Keyes years”), four of the most futile years in Illinois GOP history, whose family has been involved in this state’s politics since statehood, it seems, and who tries to convince us that he is an outsider. With the possible, and only possible, exception of Mr. McKenna, finding three people more representative of the Republican branch of the combine that has run this state for decades would be impossible. The only genuine outsider in the race, Adam Andrzejewski, is far behind the cabal in the lead.

So who’s leading in the Senatorial primaries? Alexi Giannoulias, current state treasurer who has used money from his family’s bank, best known for its close ties to influence buyer and peddler Tony Rezko, and several less savory characters, to buy his way into this state’s political establishment leads the Democrats. Congressman Mark Kirk, who has been a Washington insider and Bush boot licker for his entire public life leads the Republican field.

You get the picture--people talk about how they are tired of the same business as usual but are about to nominate, and ultimately elect, shining standard-bearers of business as usual. I suppose this shouldn't surprise me, or anyone, for that matter; people often say one thing and do another. There are doubtless numerous psychological explanations for their tendency to do so, but I am not a psychologist. So I can only guess that people vote for the status quo while decrying the status quo because, in political matters, people are lazy and easily malleable. Rather than do the work necessary for self government, they go about voting for the guy with the best commercial, the largest number of signs, or whose name or concocted life story appeals to them. Not surprising, but damn scary.