“DON’T MAKE NO WAVES, DON’T BACK NO LOSERS.”

1/25/09

One of the theories that is being bandied about by those who love Chicago politics, most notably by John Kass, is that the grand plan of the people who really matter in the politics of our nation’s greatest city is to get rid of Rod (“I thought of Mandela, Dr. King, and Gandhi”) Blagojevich (Blago has been very cooperative in this aspect of the plan.) and then pass a massive tax increase that will enrage the voters and force out Governor Pat Quinn, putting Lisa Madigan in the governor’s office with a potful of revenue to spend on the people who provide the financial support for the political shenanigans that often pass for government in this state.

As loyal readers know, I had, and in a sense, have, my own theory regarding the regular Democrats’ approach to the Blagojevich imbroglio. I thought that a deal was struck whereby Blagojevich would be put out of office and Governor Quinn would appoint Lisa Madigan to President Obama’s Senate seat. This would give Lisa a nice plum, though perhaps not the plum she really wanted, and assure that things would go smoothly for Governor Quinn in the legislature, controlled by Lisa’s father, House Speaker, 13th Ward Committeeman, and (probably) second most powerful man in Illinois Mike Madigan. Then they would go from there. That plan fell apart when our jello-spined senior senator, Dick Durbin, turned tail and ran at the first cry of racism and acceded to Roland Burris’s ascension to the United States Senate. So my not being entirely onboard with what I’ll call the Kass conjecture might be construed as a case of my talking my own position, but I’ll risk that and spell out my problems with the theory.

On its face, the Kass conjecture makes sense: The pols get rid of a reformer (Quinn) for good, Mike Madigan gets more power, or at least the fatherly pride of seeing his daughter in high office, and the pols get lots of money to spend on their pals and financial supporters. But one cog that seems out of place is Mike Madigan himself. Madigan, despite his Party, does not come across as a reflexive tax increaser. In fact, certainly socially and in many cases financially, he comes across as something of a conservative who would not be a Democrat if he were not from the 13th ward but was raised in, say, Elmhurst. He has spoken in a not entirely hostile manner toward a tax increase, but, as he has said, this is a concession to fiscal reality: If the state is going to continue spending like it does, it simply must raise taxes. The Illinois constitution does not allow deficit spending.

The most important reason that Mr. Madigan is probably not plotting some sort of massive tax increase lies not in ideology, which matters little to him (This very wise eschewal of the bounds of ideology is also the reason that I am sure Mr. Madigan would have been a Republican if he were raised in DuPage County.), but in pure politics. Mr. Madigan is very protective of his majority in the State House of Representatives. He realizes that a big tax increase will not play well, especially in suburban Cook County and the collar counties and could threaten his majority; he could not place ALL the blame for a tax increase on Governor Quinn. Therefore, while a tax increase of some sort is inevitable, don’t look for it to be large or for Mr. Madigan to be one of its chief proponents. His having to be dragged, kicking and screaming, into such a tax increase may be largely smoke and mirrors, as some will inevitably suggest, but I suspect otherwise. Further, even with a tax increase, there won’t be a lot of money to spend on favored constituencies; we will have to use the money to dig ourselves out of the hole Mr. Blagojevich, and his accomplices in the General Assembly, have dug for us.

I also think that the people who matter in Chicago and Illinois politics do not look as far ahead as a “put Pat Quinn in, raise taxes, dump Quinn, put Lisa in” plan would necessitate. This is not because they are not smart; it is because they are, by and large, very smart and know that planning too far ahead in politics is a dangerous, and ossifying, strategy.